January is the time of year where you are meant to look ahead to what is in store during the coming year. So here’s my look back/ahead.
IT/Internet
Copyright
‘3 Strikes’ permeates across Europe
In a move to combat internet piracy, several countries have adopted or proposed laws that would involved cutting off internet access to ‘alleged’ illegal p2p filesharers. South Korea became the first country to implement a three-strikes law, closely followed by Taiwan. France adopted the ‘Hadopi law’ in September, although it has yet to become law, with the French data protection agency currently holding up to act, over concerns at how the punishment procedure of the Hadopi law would work in practice. Both the New Zealand and UK governments have put forward proposals ( The Digital Economy Bill in the UK) which would possibly result in ‘3 strikes’ rules.
Meanwhile Singapore, Germany and Spain are amongst the countries that have said they will not cut off subscribers. Spain’s proposed law – passed by the cabinet - would target websites accused of facilitating piracy. First warning letters would be sent, then an appearance before a panel of experts, who would decide whether to then refer the case to a judge, who would then have to power to order the closure of the site.
New European rules, which need to be implemented by all Member States by June 2011, included Article 1(3)a of the new Better Regulation Directive (Directive 2009/140/EC ) – the argument over the wording of which almost scuppered the whole Telecoms Package – which states that any measures to restrict the fundamental rights or freedoms of citizens may only be imposed if they are appropriate, proportionate and necessary within a democratic society, and their implementation shall be subject to adequate procedural safeguards…including effective judicial review and due process. A prior fair and impartial procedure and an effective and timely judicial review shall be guaranteed.
As more countries adopt ‘3 Strikes rules’ I would expect to see laws challenged under this article. In the debates on the Digital economy Bill in the UK, several Lords have already questioned whether the current drafting language of the UK’s bill would stand up to a legal challenge under the directive.
Broadband
Operators will be pressing ahead with were either rolling out or trialing superfast broadband of up to 100Mbps and more in Europe. This will be key for many operators as Value Added Services become the name of the game in attracting customer and reducing churn. According to a report from Informa – Beyond Triple Play: Value added services for broadband operators – Music subscriptions, online storage, home monitoring and games subscriptions were the most attractive value added services operators could offer. These were the most highly valued by consumers and the potential revenue to operators and the effect they could have on decreasing churn was highlighted. Orange (France) Telia (Sweden), SKT (Korea) Telfonica (Spain),TDC (Denmark) DT (Germany) and Virgin Media (UK) were amongst those identified as pursuing a broad service range. Booz & Company also identified VAS as one of the five distinct shifts they saw effecting the Telecoms industry in 2010.
Online Music
Make or break year for the likes of Spotify and Mog who both launched free/subscription based music streaming services in 2009. It will be a question of how long the big labels will stick with them before bailing out. To be fair to the labels they are at long last realising that they have to be more daring if they want to combat illegal filesharing by offering a real variety of alternatives, but I still would not be surprised to see Spotify or Mog ultimately fail. The Biggest threat to all of these online music services will likely come from telcos/cable operators bundling music download and streaming packages into their TV/Broadband/Phone offerings. BskB has launched such a service in the UK and Virgin Media is due to do the same (although due to Record company cold feet, it looks like this will not be the game changing ‘all you can eat’ service that it might have been).
Tablet Computers
Can Apple make the Tablet a must have? No. A must want perhaps, but a must have? I just don’t see it. For starters, it will be Apple priced. But it will be a Kindle Killer some say. Maybe, but: it will be Apple priced. To use it as your main computer, you’ll need a real keyboard and mouse to use with it in the home/office where pissing about using a virtual keyboard not only gets boring but doing so on the tablet is ergonomically unsound and screws your back in. [obviously should anyone from Apple want to sent me one to try out, I’ll be more than happy to let you try and convert me to its merits]
Telecoms
As mentioned above, Booz & Company five distinct shifts they saw effecting the Telecoms industry in 2010.
1. Growth Shifts to the East and South -Much of the growth in the telecom industry will shift from mature Western markets toward developing countries.
2. Focus Shifts to Value-Added Services – Much of the telecom world is being rapidly commoditized—from connectivity and basic services to low-end handsets, to networking equipment to the networks themselves—prompting virtually every player in the sector to seek out new sources of value. The clear solution: services.
3. The Digital Generation Sets New Expectations - As rivals in the telecom sector battle to move up the value chain, the world is quickly moving toward an ‘all digital, all the time’ model.
4. Operational Efficiency Becomes Even More Critical - The commoditization of large swaths of the telecom value chain is forcing every player in the industry to create the most efficient operations they possibly can— outsourcing non-core functions such as engineering and network and field services operations, even spinning off entire passive infrastructures that are no longer central to creating real value, and completely overhauling their business processes.
5. Regulators Take a Renewed Interest in the Sector - As telecom players move to add more services that require faster networks, many policymakers and regulators around the world are moving to support these efforts. No longer does the ideology of the free market hold complete sway over regulatory thinking. Instead, regulators are becoming more prescriptive and more interventionist as they look to support economic growth through large-scale broadband network deployment—in some cases even engaging directly in such investments.
Convergence and Consolidation
Started to happen in 2009, and likely to increase in 2010. In the UK, for example, Carphone Warehouse’s purchase of Tiscali UK, and the merger between Orange and T-Mobile’s UK businesses. If the latter merger is cleared some commentators expect ‘3′ to once again become a potential target for whether 02, Vodafone or even BT. Elsewhere, Deutsche Telekom has said it is seeking further partnerships and investment opportunities under a new strategy to address the growing convergence between TV, the Internet, and mobile service segments; Portugal Telecom (PT) is targeting overseas growth in its Brazilian markets and is looking at investing in further mobile operators in sub-Saharan Africa, including Mozambique; Belgacom CEO Didier Bellens said the operator plans to develop new technology and expand overseas. It sees opportunities in the former Soviet region, including Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan; Turkcell, is seeking investment in North Africa and Middle East region, where it does not have a strong presence.
There are also a number of IPO/Licensing opportunities in 2010
Australia: SingTel is considering selling a minority stake in its Australian unit Optus through an initial public offering (IPO) in Australia during 2010.
Azerbaijan: Fixed-line incumbent Aztelecom and regional operator Baku City Telephone Network (BGTS) are both likely to be privitised.
Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Telecommunications and Regulatory Commission (BTRC) has announced that 3G mobile licences will be auctioned this year.
Colombia: The Information and Communications (ICT) Ministry is preparing to award up to three new mobile telecommunications licences in 2010
Costa Rica: The Costa Rican regulator plans to award three new mobile concessions during the first quarter of 2010.
Côte d’Ivoire: The l’Agence des Télécommunications de Côte d’Ivoire (ATCI), plans to issue two 3G licences in 2010.
Czech Republic: The Czech regulator CTU intends to issue the fourth 3G licence in the course of 2010.
Denmark: TDC may be planning an IPO in 2010.
Egypt: Orascom Telecom Holding is seeking a partner to merge with in 2010/2011 , with small/medium sized operators in emerging markets or in Europe favoured.
India: The country will auction 3G licences this year (following many delays in 2009, mainly due to spectrum ownership)
Kosovo: Ministry for Economy and Finance plans to privatise incumbent operator, PTK, in 2010.
Libya: The Libyan government has announced plans to sell stakes in both its mobile operators—al-Madar and Libyana—through an IPO.
Pakistan: The country could eventually offer 3G licences during 2010.
Poland: Poland’s fourth-largest mobile carrier Play may be sold in 2010, whilst number one mobile operator, Polkomtel, is considering an IPO.
Serbia: The telecoms regulator RATEL, plans to award the country’s second fixed telephony licence early 2010.
UK: Cable & Wireless will demerge its businesses fully by the end of March 2010 . The operator has operationally split its two distinct business units into a Worldwide unit and a CWI international operator, as it forges ahead with the separate listing of the two operations on the stock exchange.
Nokia v Apple v Google
Whilst Nokia is still the biggest handset vendor (in market share) in the world, the end of 2009 saw Apple (through the iPhone) overtake Nokia to become the most profitable handset vendor. Nokia is expected to put a lot of effort into the US market in 2010, with Strategy Analytics believing that “a successful fight on Apple’s high-profit home turf can simultaneously help to revitalize Nokia’s margins and to put a check on Apple’s surging growth.”
Nokia and Apple swapped patent suits during 2009, with Nokia accusing Apple of infringing 10 Nokia patents for technologies such as wireless data, speech coding and security. Apple hit back accusing Nokia of infringing 13 its patents including graphical interfaces, teleconferencing, power conservation and touch screen technologies. Expect the hostilities to continue through 2010.
Nokia is also facing competition in the mobile operating system market where its Symbian system has for a long time been market leader, from Google’s Android operating system. Google’s move to launch their own branded handset, as Apple did with the iPhone, will also likely impact on both Apple’s and Nokia’s finances during 2010.
Media
Video on Demand
This year will see the UK version of Hulu and Arqiva’s SeeSaw do battle in the UK market. SeeSaw is built on the ‘Project Kangaroo’ technology platform that Arqiva bought from BBC Worldwide, ITV and Channel 4 following a Competition Commission decision to block the project claiming it would reduce competition and harm consumers. Those involved and many politicians criticized the decision saying instead of ensuring and financial benefits of the service stayed in the UK, it handed potential profits to the likes of Hulu. For example outgoing ITV head, Michael Grade said “”As a result of the Competition Commission turning down the decision to launch Project Kangaroo, I guarantee an American company will take the lion’s share of our content in the UK very soon…Google or Hulu. Hulu is looking to launch in the UK. As a result of the commission’s decision, UK creative money will go to the Americans and not get reinvested in the UK.”
As Grade mentioned, YouTube will also feature in this shake up having already secured its first long-form on-demand UK TV content with Channel 4.
I totally agree with Grade and others on this. Whilst it is hard to argue that the Competition Commission decision was flawed on legal grounds, the end result for the creative industries in the UK– which the government claims to care so much about – is potentially devastating.
Sports Broadcasting Rights
All eyes will be on the European as the Court of Justice it hands down an opinion in the Pubcasting case (The Football Association Premier League Ltd v QC Leisure and others / Karen Murphy v Media Protection Services Limited) – C-403/08 & C-429/08 - It looks at whether licence agreement provisions restricting foreign broadcasters from selling decoders, etc., for use outside their territory, is an illegal restriction of competition contrary to Article 81 of the EC Treaty, and also seeks guidance on the meaning of the expression “illicit device”.
This case could have a huge impact on the whole issue of copyright for broadcasts, and the idea that rights may be licensed to exclusive licensees in particular member states (for considerable sums) As the licensing methods under consideration in this case are also employed in other forms of sports broadcasting, the outcome will be closely awaited, given its potential to impact the industry’s approach to these issues.
YouTube Copyright Case
Both Viacom and Google have now asked a federal court for summary judgment in their copyright infringement case: Google says it doesn’t knowingly store or play copyrighted clips on the site, and if it does, it is protected by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. Google also cites last year’s ruling in the Veoh/Universal Music Group case, in which a court ruled in favour of the Youtube. Viacom reiterates its initial argument, which is that Google and YouTube knew what they were doing and profited from it, which means the DMCA does not protect them.
Google should be feeling confident in this case, although one suspects that this case has a few more years in it yet.
Social Media
There’s an App for that. Yes, as we all get more mobile it has now become essential for your website/service to have an App (iPhone/Android/Symbian) people – myself included - now take whether or not there is an app to allow seamless access via mobile online into account before signing up for/using online services. (Yes, Shelfari, Library Thing etc this is why I don’t use you anymore)
Facebook Phone?
Google Buys Twitter?
Google Buys Evernote?
Nokia Buys Evernote?
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